Published: Thu, 24 Feb 2011 01:56 AM
With a lull in violence out of Libya as well as a lack of any formidable data today, traders once again focused on interest rates, and bid up currencies with the greatest possibility of hiking those rates in the coming months. While there is a lack of any fresh news out of Libya, the potential for contagion in the region seems to be a certainty. This has been reflected in the recent spike in oil prices which have led many to believe that those higher prices will lead to a wave of inflation in the near future which will need to be combated with higher interest rates. Even though this theme dominated the market today in Asia, the wheels of the move were greased by safe haven flows into the Swiss Franc, which saw record highs against the dollar.
The EUR/USD saw a good amount of inflows as traders felt that ECB may actually back up its recent hawkish tone with actions. The European currency saw highs just over 1.3780 on the back of gains of about 40 pips here in Asia. GBP/USD saw similar moves as it was revealed earlier that another BoE member was swayed into the hawkish camp and looking for a rate hike. That particular pair gained over 70 pips to top 1.6250 highs. The AUD/USD rode the same wave and saw bargain hunters push the pair from 1.0020 to 1.0080 on the day. The AUD/NZD riding highs near 1.3480 was also helpful for Aussie gains.
The big winner here in Asia was the Swiss Franc, which saw a fresh all time high of 0.9270 against the US Dollar as the currency was boosted by inflows due to its safe haven status. With the fuse lit in the Middle East many investors were looking for the safety offered by the Franc as well as the Japanese yen. The Yen strengthened over the session as well, with limping yen crosses and the USD/JPY pair dropping from 82.45 to two week lows near 82.00. Brent Crude Oil, BCO/USD saw a big gain on the back of the regional turmoil in the Middle East, pushing to highs just over $113.70 late in Asian trade. Oil should remain excessively volatile as the situation unwinds in North Africa.
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出版: 2011年02月24日 北京时间 04:16
有关利率的期待与恐惧左右市场
利比亚暴力活动暂停，再加上今天缺乏有力度的经济数据，令交易商再次聚焦利率，并推高那些最有可能在接下来几个月加息的货币。利比亚没有爆出任何新的消息，但该地区可能出现相似的动荡情况则看来是板上钉钉。这已反映到油价近期冲高上，并导致很多市场人士相信最近会出现一波通胀，将需要升息以应对之。今天的市场由这样的主题主导，但润滑剂则是流往瑞郎的避险资金 – 瑞郎兑美元创下历史高点。
欧元/美元迎来相当规模的买盘，原因是交易商认为欧洲央行或真地以行动支持最近强硬的言论。欧元上涨40点左右，最高摸至略高于1.3780的水平。英镑/美元走势相似，此前有报道称，英国央行另一成员同样转向强硬阵营，希望加息。英镑/美元上涨逾70点，最高至1.6250。澳元/美元也不例外，在逢低买盘的推动下自1.0020涨至1.0080。澳元/纽元高见1.3480附近，同样支持澳元走高。
亚洲时段最大的赢家是瑞郎，其兑美元于0.9270创下历史新高，主要是受到避险资金流的推动。在中东导火索点燃之后，许多投资者正投入瑞郎及日元的怀抱避险。日元时段内同样走强，导致日元交叉盘承压、美元/日元由82.45跌至82.00附近的两周低点。布伦特原油在中东地区骚乱背景下大幅走高，于亚洲时段尾盘涨至略高于113.70的水平。从北非情况来看，原油势必继续极端震荡。

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